The week of September 21

How to read the line under an event

Each kind of event carries one measured line: over the window that follows it, how much the index moved relative to what the tape was already doing, averaged over every archived session that carried the event, against the same window on every other session. In the file's own words: range over the window / (trailing 30-min move x sqrt(minutes)), mean on event days over mean on other days. A pre-open release is read over the first 30 minutes of the session as a share of the opening print. The day count is the number of archived sessions behind the number, so a line on 36 days says less than one on 215.

The FOMC decision and the expirations link to the studies that took them apart; the decision also links to the forward ledger, where two rules fixed in advance are scored on every meeting after the fact. Sources are linked on the event itself: the Fed's own calendar, FRED release dates, TreasuryDirect, the ISM report, the issuer's earnings page.

The terminal's dock opens the same week beside the session, marks in-session events on the time axis and the replay scrubber, and in the live stream counts down to the next one. The Lab reads the calendar as per-minute columns, so a rule can name "the first 15 minutes after CPI". The raw file is public JSON, keyed by ET date, rebuilt every six hours.

Measured history, not a forecast. The calendar is built from public schedules and can change when the source changes; nothing on this page is investment advice. See the Terms.