FOMC decision days in the SPX archive
36 sessions · newest first · the calendar
By event:FOMCCPINFPPCEPPIGDPRetail salesJOLTSISMClaimsAuctionsFedOpex
hour after 14:00: 3.45x the tape's own vol, 36 days · the study · the forward ledger
The book: flip crossed on 54% of these days, 10% otherwise; short gamma at the start on 11 of 24, then 0.67x the move of the long-gamma days.
These are the sessions in the free archive that carried FOMC decision. Each opens the full minute-by-minute replay in the terminal: dealer gamma, the zero-gamma flip, the walls, the event's minute marked on the scrubber. The measured line above reads the same window on every one of these days against the same window on every other archived day: range over the window / (trailing 30-min move x sqrt(minutes)), mean on event days over mean on other days. The move column is the signed change in index points over the hour after 14:00 and is filled for the most recent days the measurement carries; nothing here is a forecast.
| Session | Event | Prints | Move, pt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 3.75% / prior 3.75% | +27.4 |
| 2026-06-17 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 3.75% / prior 3.75% | -9.5 |
| 2026-04-29 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 3.75% / prior 3.75% | +4.9 |
| 2026-03-18 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 3.75% / prior 3.75% | -35.8 |
| 2026-01-28 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 3.75% / prior 3.75% | -2.2 |
| 2025-12-10 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 3.75% / prior 4.00% | +26.0 |
| 2025-10-29 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.00% / prior 4.25% | -20.3 |
| 2025-09-17 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.25% / prior 4.50% | -22.7 |
| 2025-07-30 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.50% / prior 4.50% | |
| 2025-06-18 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.50% / prior 4.50% | |
| 2025-05-07 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.50% / prior 4.50% | |
| 2025-03-19 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.50% / prior 4.50% | |
| 2025-01-29 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.50% / prior 4.50% | |
| 2024-12-18 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.50% / prior 4.75% | |
| 2024-11-07 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.75% / prior 5.00% | |
| 2024-09-18 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.00% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2024-07-31 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2024-06-12 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2024-05-01 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2024-03-20 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2024-01-31 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2023-12-13 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2023-11-01 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2023-09-20 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.50% | |
| 2023-07-26 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.50% / prior 5.25% | |
| 2023-06-14 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.25% / prior 5.25% | |
| 2023-05-03 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.25% / prior 5.00% | |
| 2023-03-22 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 5.00% / prior 4.75% | |
| 2023-02-01 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.75% / prior 4.50% | |
| 2022-12-14 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.50% / prior 4.00% | |
| 2022-11-02 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 4.00% / prior 3.25% | |
| 2022-09-21 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 3.25% / prior 2.50% | |
| 2022-07-27 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 2.50% / prior 1.75% | |
| 2022-06-15 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 1.75% / prior 1.00% | |
| 2022-05-04 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 1.00% / prior 0.50% | |
| 2019-06-19 | 14:00 FOMC decision | Fed funds: actual 2.50% / prior 2.50% |
Times are ET. Prints are the release's own numbers where the calendar has them: actual, forecast and prior. The book line, where present, comes from the dealer levels per minute of every archived session. See the Terms.